HSE Experts Help to Implement Science and Technology Foresight in Africa
The population of African countries is growing so fast that the continent is likely to play a significant role in global development. However, the socio-economic situation in African States remains dramatic. Access to high-quality education, the development of science and high technologies are crucial in addressing these challenges. Professor Alexander Sokolov, Head of the UNESCO Chair on Future Studies at HSE University, spoke at the International Forum of UNESCO Chairs and Partners ‘Transforming Knowledge for Africa’s Future.’ The event took place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Forum participants, convened by the African Union Commission and UNESCO, discussed cultural and historical perspectives of knowledge transformation, giving an opportunity to the younger generation to contribute by shaping the future image of the continent.
According to the UN, by 2050, every fourth person on the planet will be born in Africa and will speak one of the continent’s 2,000 languages. However, despite the abundance of natural resources and the growing population, Africa has not yet become a centre of attraction for high-tech industries and investment. To change this, UNESCO has declared Africa a global priority.
‘Since its founding, UNESCO has always recognised the crucial role of this continent in achieving global peace, security and prosperity for all,’ said Stefania Giannini, Assistant Director-General for Education, UNESCO, at the opening of the event.
Despite the abundance of natural and human resources, almost all African countries hold low positions on economic and social rankings, with the exception of demographics. Africa accounts for only 1% of the world's scientific research, and less than 0.6% of the region's GDP is invested in R&D—this is three times less than the global average.
In order to correct the current imbalance, the forum participants had to rethink how African countries approach innovative strategy and offer effective tools to accelerate scientific and technological development.
According to the forum organisers, the continent needs a consistent transformation of the current paradigm of knowledge reproduction. All over the world, science and technology play an important role in social and economic development. Technological advances can dramatically transform various aspects of human life, such as communications, transportation, healthcare, entertainment, etc.
Making quality education more accessible to young people in African countries could be the first step in this direction. In addition, it’s necessary to create an interdisciplinary platform for knowledge exchanges, networking and research partnerships at the level of large educational clusters, including international ones.
‘Quality education and innovation, which make our planet more sustainable and our countries more prosperous, must be accessible and affordable for all,’ said Dr Rita Bissoonauth, Director, UNESCO Liaison Office to the African Union and Representative to Ethiopia. She expressed confidence that education, culture, science, and communication are the tools necessary for solving complex problems faced by African countries.
Professor Alexander Sokolov moderated the session ‘Science, Technology and Innovation Foresight for Countries in Africa,’ where he presented the goals of scientific and technological foresight, its methods and organisation. He spoke about modern approaches and explained recent events in this area.
In 2021, HSE University experts conducted a foresight study of the scientific, technological, and innovative development of South Africa. They studied the impact of scientific and technological innovations on socio-economic problems—inequality, poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, and disease. According to their conclusions, investment in scientific and technological development can lead the country to sustainable and inclusive economic growth, provided that the policies of state, public, and private institutions are coordinated.
According to Sokolov, researchers currently face a new challenge—an increased level of technological and geopolitical uncertainty. The scenario approach in scientific forecasting is complicated. On the one hand, there is a lack of statistical data, and on the other hand, an overabundance of unstructured data that makes any research noisy. Furthermore, the close connection between social, technological, and political trends increases the variability of forecast results.
To work with uncertainty, a combination of foresight methods such as STEEPV, scenario modelling, and big data analysis can be considered the most relevant. The application of these methods makes it possible to take into account a variety of external factors, consider a wide range of possible scenarios, and provide experts with complete, reliable, and objective data.
Mlungisi Bhekizizwe Gabriel Cele, Head of the National Advisory Council on Innovation, South Africa, noted that the national 10-year plan for the innovative development of South Africa was based on the research conducted by HSE University. In his opinion, African scientific organisations demonstrate a lack of awareness and literacy regarding future research. Therefore, sub-Saharan governments should consistently fund research on foresight conceptualisation and its methods in order to adapt them to different political cultures of the region.
Petrus Letaba, Professor at the University of Pretoria, South Africa, gave an overview of scientific and technological foresight in sub-Saharan Africa. He noted that most countries in the region are interested in this area of research. Speaking about the main challenges hindering the development of such research, he pointed out the lack of expertise in the field of foresight (both in theory and practice), as well as the limited funding that prevents research from being conducted on a regular basis.
Jonathan Larry Calof, Head of the UNESCO Chair on Anticipatory Systems for Innovation and Venture Creation, University of New Brunswick, Canada, discussed the benefits of a proactive strategy. He gave examples from South Africa and other countries in the region to illustrate his point. The key component of this strategy is implementing practices aimed at collecting and providing information to governments and businesses for the development of innovation policies and decision-making. Professor Calof emphasised that combining various approaches, such as forecasting and competitive intelligence, can help to study future trends in science and technology at both macro and micro levels.
Tanja Hichert, Head of the UNESCO Chair on Complex Systems and Transformative African Futures, Stellenbosch University, South Africa, believes that foresight should focus mainly on solving transformational rather than incremental issues in order to cover areas beyond science and technology. This requires putting science and technology foresight on the agenda of national governments and international organisations. Hichert added that it was also necessary to create more UNESCO laboratories and departments in African universities and actively provide financial support to scientific and technological foresight in the countries of the region.
At the closing session the organisers thanked the forum participants for striving to create the conditions needed for Africa to become a prosperous continent by 2063, with means and resources for its development, well-educated and qualified population, and modern and competitive system of science, technology, and innovation.
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